Often, when bottom half Premier League clubs lose their marquee man, it is extremely hard to find a replacement, often meaning multiple players are needed to replace the output, rather than a like-for-like replacement. Wolves have certainly found that out the hard way.
The likes of Michael Olise (Crystal Palace), Declan Rice (West Ham), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth), and Amadou Onana (Everton) are just a few examples in recent years.
Now, the Old Gold are the latest team to experience this, losing both Max Kilman and Pedro Neto this summer, leaving Gary O’Neil with the task of replacing their output within the squad.
Pedro Neto's big move to Chelsea
Wolves lost their star attacker this summer, with Pedro Neto joining Chelsea, for a fee of around £51.4m plus £2.6m add-ons.
Neto made 24 appearances for the Midlands club last season, scoring three goals, providing 11 assists, and totalling 1,729 minutes played.
But it isn’t just the goals and assists that Neto provided, it was his all-round play, speed on the break (counter-attack), and even defensive work-rate to help Wolves out of possession, that made him so important to the side, and attracted interest from other clubs.
In his entire time at Wolves, Neto made 135 appearances, scoring 14 goals and providing 24 assists across 7,585 minutes.
The Portuguese was linked with many clubs for a move away from Wolves, with the likes of Arsenal, and Tottenham interested, before he joined Chelsea.
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Wolves' current wing options
So far this season, O’Neil has played Hee-Chan Hwang, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, Pablo Sarabia, and Matheus Cunha (usually preferred centrally) as wingers/wide options. Bellegarde is the only one to have started every Premier League game.
Hwang has made seven appearances (319 minutes), and is yet to register a single goal or assist while Bellegarde has also played seven games (409 minutes), and scored once.
Sarabia has made four appearances (153 minutes) with zero goals or assists, and Cunha has two goals in seven fixtures, one goal coming when starting centrally, and one coming from the left wing.
Goals
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.38
xG
0.00
0.07
0.33
0.29
xAG
0.04
0.05
0.00
0.16
Progressive Carries
2.00
2.56
6.67
3.92
Progressive Passes
1.20
1.16
20.0
2.75
Shot Total
0.28
1.11
1.76
3.02
Key Passes
0.80
0.93
0.00
1.76
Successful Take-Ons
0.40
0.23
10.0
1.96
Shot-Creating Actions
1.60
2.56
0.00
3.73
Sarabia’s metrics are very skewed, having 20 progressive passes per 90, and ten successful take-ons per 90. This is due to his limited minutes coming in cup competitions this campaign, so these results have to be considered in this context.
Cunha shows he excels in most metrics, but as previously mentioned, in an ideal world, the Brazilian can play centrally, where he can drop to link play, be close to the box, and ensure he is involved in all phases.
This leaves Wolves in a scenario where they can either continue to trust two of Hwang, Bellegarde or Sarabia on the wings.
Alternatively, they could try something new, playing a player they already have in a slightly more advanced position in order to give him more creative responsibility in the final third.
Wolves' internal Neto solution
Ait-Nouri has been described as “fantastic” by Jacek Kulig in the past, for his excellent dribbling efficiency, ability to win duels and tackles, but also to get forward and create chances for his side, with shots of his own.
The 23-year-old is naturally a left-back but has played as a left-wing back – which many regard to be his best position – in the past, and even as a left-midfielder/winger this season, once under O’Neil.
Ait-Nouri has made 123 appearances in total for Wolves since joining from French outfit, Angers, scoring eight goals, and providing nine assists, playing a total of 8.484 minutes for the club. Wolves only paid around £10m for the Algerian, signing him back in 2021.
According to Transfermarkt, the Algerian is now Wolves’ third-highest valued player, with a value of £29m. But, how can they get the best out of him, and ensure they are maximizing one of their best players?
Goals
0.17
Assists
0.17
xG
0.17
xAG
0.13
Progressive Carries
2.26
Progressive Passes
3.96
Shots Total
1.53
Key Passes
0.94
Successful Take-Ons
1.32
Shot-Creating Actions
2.26
Described as “one of the Premier League’s best players in 2024” by Sky Sports’ Dougie Critchley, the impressive Ait-Nouri is already producing more progressive passes per 90 than any of Wolves’ wing option (bar Sarabia’s skewed metric), he also produces the highest xAG (expected assisted goals) per 90, and makes the second most key passes behind Cunha per 90.
A pass is considered progressive if the distance between the starting point and the next touch is at least 10 meters closer to the opponent’s goal or any completed pass into the penalty area.
This tells you the creative levels of Ait-Nouri, and this could go one step further, if O’Neil was to make a permanent switch for the Algerian, to playing as a left-midfielder, and having more attacking responsibilities.
The 23-year-old has all the traits needed to play in this more advanced role, being able to carry and glide with the ball, beat his man 1v1, and connect play in tight areas due to his close ball control.
By playing Ait-Nouri here, you could replace the creative tendencies out wide that they are now missing with the loss of Neto, and also allow Cunha to stay more central, unlocking him further up the pitch and closer to goal.
Getting the best out of Cunha is pivotal if Wolves want to avoid a relegation battle this season, as he made 36 appearances last season, scoring 14 goals and providing eight assists. The Brazilian is also Wolves’ highest value player according to Transfermarkt, with a value of around £37.5m.
If they can find the right balance, the Old Gold have the quality available to hurt teams. However, they have to find it soon, as they sit rock bottom of the table, with 16 goals conceded and only six goals scored, which almost definitely wouldn’t be enough to keep them up if they stay on that trajectory.
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